Principal Investigator: Raina Plowright

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): 

Conceptually, land use change is recognized as a primary driver of zoonotic pathogen spillover from wildlife to human populations. However, the mechanisms by which land use change triggers the cascade of events that lead to spillover are little studied and have never been investigated from a convergent, emerging network perspective. Absent such analyses, it is impossible to theorize how changes in land use will influence spillover risks under varying scenarios, predict zoonotic disease outbreaks, and develop the ecological and socio-economic interventions necessary to prevent or mitigate zoonotic spillover. We thus propose to use biological, social, and computational science approaches to identify the rules of life for land use-induced spillover. We will explore the inter-related environmental, organismal, human-engineered, and social systems (network domains) through which zoonotic spillover becomes an emergent property of land use change. In addition to the scientific findings, which will be translated into a model conveying the rules of emergence for land use-induced spillover, we will produce a spillover risk analysis toolkit. Risk assessment and management components will include a risk evaluation framework, spillover predictive models, and ecological countermeasures decision support tool. Risk communication components will include policy guidance for multi-lateral biodiversity and health security frameworks, a social marketing campaign toolkit, and land use-induced spillover course modules for One Health teaching applications.